Foreign Policy Analysis Dersi 3. Ünite Özet

Introduction

Foreign policy, as discussed and explained in previous chapters of this book, can be defined in its broader meaning as the behavior of states in the international system.This chapter attempts to give a comprehensive picture of the study of foreign policy decision making, the processes involved in foreign policy decision making, and the contexts, pressures and constraints which foreign policy makers face.

Conceptualizing Foreign Policy Decision-Makin

The foreign policy process is a process of decision making. It refers to the choices of individuals, groups, and coalitions that affect a nation’s actions on the international stage. Thus, foreign policy decision making is the process by which governments analyze existing problems, evaluate policy alternatives, and take appropriate actions to overcome the outstanding issues as well as for the maximization of national interest.

Dynamics of foreign policy decision making resembles these everyday decision making dynamics, although the stakes in foreign policy decision making is much higher. Components of foreign policy decision making are;

• identifying the problem,
• searching for alternatives,
• choosing an alternative, and
• executing the alternative

Rational and Cognitive Approaches to The Study of Foreign Policy Decision Making

Traditional understandings of foreign policy analyses proceed from the rational actor assumption. This assumption is derived originally from microeconomics.It is clear from the above explanation that a pureForeign Policy decision making is a complex and multidimensional process, as mentioned previously, there are many actors, agents, and institutions involved in this process. The factors influencing the process are generally categorized as the external or global environment, societal environment, the governmentally rational account of foreign policy decision making is not strong enough to meet the criticisms levelled against it. A decision maker could be a rational person individually, but when factors of individual characteristics and the psychological environment, like their roles as a group member, their perceptions, past experiences and beliefs are ascribed, it is not possible to expect them to act purel rational.

Models of Foreign Policy Decision Making

Decision making is a complex and ever changing process. It is possible to divide decision making models as models of rationality and models of non-rationality (not irrationality).

The Rational Actor Model (RAM)

When faced with a decision making situation, rational actors within the framework of RAM follow a process with certain stages. They;

1. define the situation basing on objective assessment,
2. specify the goal to be achieved and if there is conflict among them prioritize the goal
3. consider all possible alternative means of achieving the goal,
4. select the final alternative that is calculated to maximize achievement of the goal,
5. take the necessary actions to implement the decision

The Organizational Process Model (OPM)

The organizational process model is one of two new decision-making approaches introduced by Allison in his groundbreaking book (Allison, 1971). According to this model, the national government is not a unitary actor like assumed in the RAM, it is also not comprised of individual decision makers. Instead, it is, as Allison describes, “a constellation of loosely allied organizations on top of which leaders sit”(Allison, 1971: 79). Each organizational unit of the government has special function responsibilities.

Standard Operating Procedures: Step by step instructions compiled by an organziation to guide the bureaucrats carry out routine operations.

The Bureaucratic Politics Model (BPM)

While there is consensus on national interests in general, individual interests can only have an influence on individuals whose individual characteristics are open to such influences.With this line of approach, the BPM “focuses primarily on the political processes internal to each state” within the framework of foreign policy making because in this model foreign policy is portrayed as the unintended result of a political bargaining process.

The Process of Decision Making

Foreign policy decision making is a complex process which involves all sorts of resources and passes through various stages. Beginning from the problem identification, we can identify four main stages of foreign policy decision making.

Identification of the Problem: Perception, Images, and Information

Decision makers do not find the problems or opportunities out there; problems/opportunities should be recognized by them. Before a problem is identified by the decision maker, three stages appear; first a stimulus from the environment should be received, then this stimulus should be perceived, and finally this perceived stimulus should be interpreted as a foreign policy problem/opportunity.

Interpretation, Determination and Evaluation of Alternatives

The perceived information at this stage would be interpreted by the decision maker in order to define the situation and to determine the alternative options.

Selection of the Best Option

At this stage the decision maker will certainly take into account its political concerns. Unlike the bureaucracy, political concerns are important for decision makers whose existence as decision maker is dependent upon its electoral capacity, of course in democratic systems.

Implementation of the Decision

In terms of implementation, it is also important to observe the results of implementation in order to see whether the decision was sound or not. At this point operating a feedback mechanism will be important. If the feedback obtained from both the external and internal environment is positive, this will encourage the continuation of the chosen policy, but if the feedback is negative, it shows that the implementation deviated from the ground of the decision and that it needs a reevaluation or be ceased in support of another option. The political culture of a decision maker is also a factor influencing the decision making process. The influences of political culture on foreign policy decision making are divided as direct and indirect influences. Direct influence of political culture operates through shaping the perceptions of the decision maker, and in that reflects itself in the images, regarding his/her country. Political culture, by shaping the decision makers images determines how the decision maker defines national interest, security and peace, and all other related phenomenon of foreign policy. While political culture is one of the main determinants of the decision making environment, this can be seen as an indirect effect of political culture on the decision making mechanism.