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Business Decision Models Dersi 2. Ünite Sorularla Öğrenelim

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

1. Soru

Which method allows the decision maker to use both optimistic and pessimistic approaches together?

Cevap

Criterion of Realism allows the decision maker to use these two approaches together. 


2. Soru

In decision making under uncertainty, why may decision-makers choose different methods?

Cevap

In decision making under uncertainty, the psychological status of the decision maker and their attitude and approach towards the events affect the decision. Therefore, decision makers may choose different methods. In this case, different decision makers can make different decisions about the same decision problem.


3. Soru

In 'Minimax Regret' method, when is the maximum opportunity loss (regret) for each alternative located?

Cevap

After the regret matrix has been constructed, the maximum opportunity loss (regret) for each alternative is located. 


4. Soru

In Criterion of Optimism method, if the problem is the minimization, what is the best outcome?

Cevap

If the problem is the minimization, the best outcome is the lowest value. In this case, the alternative which is the smallest value is chosen.


5. Soru

In cases where there is no level of information or knowledge about the outcomes of events, how is the decision given?

Cevap

In cases where there is no level of information or knowledge about the outcomes of events, decision is given under uncertainty. If there is more than one event in decision problem, any information about the events or the probability of occurrence of these events is not known by decision maker, it is decided under uncertainty.


6. Soru

What does 'Equally Likely' method indicate?

Cevap

This method indicates that all events occur equally likely if the probability of occurrence of events is unknown. Therefore, calculation is made considering that the event’s possibility occur equally. The final decision is made according to the objective (maximum or minimum) of the problem.


7. Soru

When can 'Criterion of Optimism' method be used?

Cevap

If decision maker has an optimistic approach, this method can be used.


8. Soru

In 'Criterion of Pessimism' method, what does the decision maker think about the outcomes of the alternatives?

Cevap

The decision maker thinks that the worst outcomes for each alternative will be realized. However, when choosing from alternatives, it selects the best alternative for the objective of the problem.


9. Soru

How did 'Minimax Regret' method propose that maximum regret be minimized?

Cevap

This method proposed that maximum regret be minimized by choosing the best pay off for each event.


10. Soru

What are some of the different criteria that the choice decision between alternatives is influenced by?

Cevap

The choice decision between alternatives is influenced by many different criteria such as the manager’s perspective on events, the policies of the business and the optimistic or pessimistic approaches of decision maker.


11. Soru

For firms launching a new product, an important change in marketing strategy or opening first branch can be given examples of decision making under uncertainty. What could these decisions be influenced by?

Cevap

These decisions could be influenced by such factors as the reaction of competitors, changes in customer demand, technological changes, economic shifts, government regulations and the situations beyond the control of decision makers.


12. Soru

What is 'Minimax Regret' method based on?

Cevap

This method is based on opportunity loss, also called regret. It is defined as the difference between the optimal and the actual pay-off.


13. Soru

In 'Criterion of Realism' method, there is a coefficient indicating the level of optimism of the decision maker. What is this coefficient symbolized by?

Cevap

There is a coefficient indicating the level of optimism of the decision maker. This coefficient is symbolized by alpha (?).


14. Soru

Generally, how many different methods can be used for decision making under uncertainty?

Cevap

Generally, five different methods can be used for decision making under uncertainty.

  • Equally Likely (Laplace)
  • Criterion of Optimism (Plunger)
  • Criterion of Pessimism (Wald)
  • Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz)
  • Minimax Regret (Savage)

15. Soru

When can 'Criterion of Pessimism' method be used?

Cevap

If decision maker has a pessimistic approach, this method can be used.


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